Commentary on our Bull Market
Updated: Jan 30, 2021
Despite historically elevated market valuations, many indicators strongly suggest we are in a bull market. Frankly our models see bullish conditions continuing out at least 24 months (although long-term economic forecasts are like long-term weather forecasts; sometimes more entertaining than accurate). Here are some potential bullish and bearish developments occurring in the near future:
COVID Vaccine administered to a majority of Americans by summer 2021 or sooner
Additional fiscal stimulus, ie stimulus checks
Republicans maintain control of Senate (blocking tax increases)
Earnings-per-share increase (bringing market valuations to more reasonable levels)
Continued disruption from COVID lasting beyond summer 2021
Numerous companies bankrupting, corporations defaulting on debt
Increased taxes (increasing capital gains tax and increasing corporate tax are most bearish for markets)
We appear to be in an early bull market.
This report reflects the current opinion of the author. The report is based upon sources believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and statements about the future expressed in the report are subject to change without notice. The report is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.